{"id":68534,"date":"2020-03-19T15:01:26","date_gmt":"2020-03-19T20:01:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.zilculator.com\/blog\/?p=68534"},"modified":"2021-01-08T07:09:57","modified_gmt":"2021-01-08T12:09:57","slug":"is-buying-real-estate-investment-in-the-beginning-of-a-recession-a-mistake","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.zilculator.com\/blog\/is-buying-real-estate-investment-in-the-beginning-of-a-recession-a-mistake\/","title":{"rendered":"Is buying real estate investment in the beginning of a recession a mistake?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Question: <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><strong>Right now, I&#8217;m in the middle of a home purchase. The price negotiated ended up at nearly $30k under asking, and that&#8217;s before the coronavirus stuff starting getting real. <\/strong><\/p><p><strong>This morning I saw an article speculating that this virus may soon cause another housing market crash. I am terrified both of closing this deal, and of backing out. I&#8217;m just afraid of getting into the property, seeing a major crash, and then having the property&#8217;s value never recover. <\/strong><\/p><p><strong>I know news stories tend to be sensationalist, but I want to know, from a Realtor&#8217;s perspective, would you buy an investment property right now?<\/strong><\/p><cite>Tom Barron<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Quick answer: <\/strong>I\u2019d be cautious and work the numbers. But if the numbers work, I\u2019d go ahead and buy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Longer answer: <\/strong>There are many factors involved here, some of them unique to investment properties. Here are some considerations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"toc_container\" class=\"toc_white no_bullets\"><p class=\"toc_title\">Contents<\/p><ul class=\"toc_list\"><li><a href=\"#Cash_Flow\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">1<\/span> Cash\nFlow<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Appreciation\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">2<\/span> Appreciation<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Conclusion\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">3<\/span> Conclusion<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n<h4><span id=\"Cash_Flow\">Cash\nFlow<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors primarily buy properties for\ncash flow, not for appreciation. Appreciation is nice, but it shouldn\u2019t be the\nmajor consideration. I know investors who are doing very well with properties\nthat aren\u2019t appreciating. They may never appreciate. And the investors don\u2019t\ncare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The goal, simply, is to take in more in\nrent and other rent-related income than is being spent on the rental property.\n(We\u2019re leaving aside the issue of depreciation which, in itself, can turn a\npositive cash-flow property into one that, for tax purposes, shows a loss.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So the first step is to work the numbers.\nOn the expense side, what are the monthly mortgage (principal, interest, taxes,\nand insurance) costs? Factor in a repair\/maintenance figure. Very rough rule of\nthumb: 1%-2% of a property\u2019s value per year. So a $300,000 property\nmight\u2014again, very roughly\u2014have a repair budget of $3,000-$6,000 per year\u2026or\n$250-$500 a month. Factor in vacancy costs. Most investors factor in 1 month\nper year. So if you\u2019re charging $1,000 a month in rent, factor in a vacancy\ncost of $1,000 a year, or $83 a month. If there are other costs: condo fees,\nHOA fees, management fees, and so on, be sure to include those, too. Subtract\nthe expenses from the income. What\u2019s left is cash flow, and it should be large\nenough to provide a reasonable return on investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s what any investor should do with\nany property, coronavirus or no coronavirus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Clearly, the other half of the equation\ninvolves rental income. Who will be your renters? How stable is their income?\nIs the property in a stable area? Is it strengthening or declining?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, I\u2019d be cautious about buying investment properties in areas that are likely to be affected by the virus. Example: Close to a Boeing assembly plant, especially if the property\u2019s renters are likely to be Boeing employees. It could be difficult around tourist destinations such as Las Vegas or Orlando. That\u2019s for perhaps the next year. (On the other hand, I know investors who made a lot of money buying Las Vegas property during and after The Great Recession\u2014around 2010 or so. But that gets into appreciation, which we\u2019ll deal with in a moment.) The immediate concern is the economy of the area\u2014and in some cases that may be as targeted as something within a 5-10 mile radius. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Read Also:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zilculator.com\/blog\/how-to-work-less-and-earn-more-with-commercial-investments\/\">How To Work Less And Earn More With Commercial Investments<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember that rent stability has less to\ndo with the affluence of an area than with the stability of the income of the\nresidents. That\u2019s why some investors love Section 8 housing. They know that the\ngovernment will pay most of the resident\u2019s housing costs. That, too, provides a\nmassive incentive for the residents to pay their share. If they don\u2019t, they\nlose their housing and the government\u2019s contribution to their rent. Section 8\nlandlords may worry about wear, tear, and maintenance on their properties. But\nthey don\u2019t generally worry about getting their rent on time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So the two main points to keep in mind\nregarding cash flow are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Buy\nan investment property based on its anticipated\/calculated cash flow.<\/li><li>Buy\nan investment property in an economically stable area, one in which renters\nwill have income stability.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4><span id=\"Appreciation\">Appreciation<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Appreciation is a bonus. It shouldn\u2019t be\nthe major factor in deciding whether to buy a property.<\/p>\n<!-- WP QUADS Content Ad Plugin v. 2.0.17 -->\n<div class=\"quads-location quads-ad2\" id=\"quads-ad2\" style=\"float:none;margin:0px;\">\n\n <!-- WP QUADS - Quick AdSense Reloaded v.2.0.17 Content AdSense async --> \n\n\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" >\nvar quads_screen_width = document.body.clientWidth;\nif ( quads_screen_width >= 1140 ) {document.write('<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:inline-block;width:550px;height:90px;\" data-ad-client=\"pub-3164542121802998\" data-ad-slot=\"4497930067\" ><\/ins>');\r\n            (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n            }if ( quads_screen_width >= 1024  && quads_screen_width < 1140 ) {document.write('<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:inline-block;width:550px;height:90px;\" data-ad-client=\"pub-3164542121802998\" data-ad-slot=\"4497930067\" ><\/ins>');\r\n            (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n            }if ( quads_screen_width >= 768  && quads_screen_width < 1024 ) {document.write('<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:inline-block;width:550px;height:90px;\" data-ad-client=\"pub-3164542121802998\" data-ad-slot=\"4497930067\" ><\/ins>');\r\n            (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n            }if ( quads_screen_width < 768 ) {document.write('<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:inline-block;width:550px;height:90px;\" data-ad-client=\"pub-3164542121802998\" data-ad-slot=\"4497930067\" ><\/ins>');\r\n            (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n            }\n<\/script>\n\n <!-- end WP QUADS --> \n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<p>Over time, most properties will appreciate. Still, the rate of appreciation has slowed over the past decade, and appreciation really varies by region, state, and municipality. See <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/blogs\/economists-outlook\/property-values-by-state-from-2005-2018 and https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/mortages-real-estate\/11\/the-truth-about-the-real-estate-market.asp\">The truth about real estate market<\/a> article for two perspectives on the issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Further, the rent paid by tenants will help reduce the size of the mortgage, thus increasing the investor\u2019s equity in the property. On Wall Street, it\u2019s often said that you can\u2019t time the markets. Real estate is somewhat different. It <em>does<\/em> run in cycles\u2014generally, about 14 years.   Here\u2019s a fairly typical chart  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"624\" height=\"356\" src=\"https:\/\/www.zilculator.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-68537\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.zilculator.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-1.png 624w, https:\/\/www.zilculator.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-1-300x171.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><figcaption>Source: www.strategicinvestmentrealtors.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the housing market hasn\u2019t\nfollowed this typical curve in the past month, nor is it likely to in the next\nseveral months, note that the Buyer\u2019s Market occurs during a downturn and at\nthe trough of the curve. And as noted above, anecdotally I know quite a few\ninvestors who bought in the 2008-2010 timeframe and have done extremely well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That raises the question of whether you\u2019re\noverpaying for the property you\u2019re buying. It\u2019s impossible for me to tell.\nAlthough getting a price that\u2019s $30,000 under what was initially asked sounds\ngreat, and it may be, it\u2019s no guarantee in any market that you\u2019re getting a\nbargain. So I can\u2019t reassure you on that point. But if you got a good deal\u2014that\nis, if you did get it for under-market\u2014and the numbers work vis-\u00e0-vis cash flow,\nthen I don\u2019t see a good reason not to proceed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You say: \u201cI&#8217;m\njust afraid of getting into the property, seeing a major crash, and then having\nthe property&#8217;s value never recover.\u201d That\u2019s an understandable concern\nbut, as we saw during past recessions, prices <em>have<\/em> recovered. It may take years (my guess is, if there\u2019s a\nsizeable decline, maybe three-six years), but they will recover and, meantime,\nyou\u2019re still getting positive cash flow. Keep in mind that people need\nsomewhere to live. It may be in rental or owned housing. It may be in\nsingle-family homes, townhouses, or apartments. So you may see more\nappreciation in some housing units and less in others. But prices have always\nrecovered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And here\u2019s a very small excerpt from a long post by the head of a turnkey rental company. The company buys rental houses, usually just fixed up, and sells them to investors\u2026often with tenants already in place. The posting is here: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.passiverealestateinvesting.com\/impact-of-coronavirus-pandemic-on-the-real-estate-market\/\">Impact of Corona Virus Pandemic on the Real Estate Market<\/a>. Honestly, I don\u2019t agree with some of his predictions and\u2014because he sells turnkey rentals\u2014he\u2019s got a vested interest in saying that things will work out well. Still, the posting makes some valid points:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>The coronavirus will have a positive impact on the U.S. real estate market if interest rates remain low and the return to normalcy is only a few months away. And residential real estate is likely to fare far better than the commercial real estate sector.<\/li><li>Sometimes, you have to take advantage of these market disruptions to see that many investors will pump the brakes on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zilculator.com\/blog\/have-a-little-cash-here-is-how-to-invest-in-real-estate\/\">investing out<\/a> of fear and other illogical emotional reasons, while others see the opportunity of having access to more real estate inventory, possibly better pricing, and still historically low-interest rates.   <br>So hang in there and don\u2019t let your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zilculator.com\/blog\/commercial-investing-4-strategies-to-succeed\/\">investment strategy<\/a> and goals get derailed by the media hype, and emotional hysteria you see today. Stay focused on opportunities and let the dust settle as it always does. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h4><span id=\"Conclusion\">Conclusion<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Double-check your income and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zilculator.com\/blog\/operating-expenses\/\">expense numbers<\/a>. And talk to your real estate agent, particularly about whether the price you\u2019re paying is still a good price (do the comps still support it) and whether your projected rental income is reasonable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If everything still checks out, I\u2019d be\ninclined to proceed with the purchase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Question: Right now, I&#8217;m in the middle of a home purchase. The price negotiated ended up at nearly $30k under asking, and that&#8217;s before the coronavirus stuff starting getting real&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":68695,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[199],"tags":[15,213,193,212],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v15.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is buying real estate investment in the beginning of a recession a mistake? | Zilculator: Real Estate Investment Analysis blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.zilculator.com\/blog\/is-buying-real-estate-investment-in-the-beginning-of-a-recession-a-mistake\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is buying real estate investment in the beginning of a recession a mistake? | Zilculator: Real Estate Investment Analysis blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Question: Right now, I&#8217;m in the middle of a home purchase. 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